Ahmetcan Kaplan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ahmetcan Kaplan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.9M-7.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-11.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2046 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1362
- Opponent strength
- 1345
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €11.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 48 pts; changed club; team strength down (-143 Elo); relative output up 86% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +9% (IQR -30% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | CB | 25 | 2046 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1345 | 1362 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 8 | 562 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1242 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 11 | 945 | 31% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1333 | 1439 | 0.48 |
| 2021/22 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | CB | 13 | 883 | 26% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1238 | 1433 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 5 | 386 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 195 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferdi Kadıoğlu Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €10.5M | €21.0M | rose |
| Bright Osayi-Samuel Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €8.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Frederik Alves Superliga · 2024 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.8M | flat |
| Serkan Asan Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Danila Prokhin Premier Liga · 2022 | 21 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Saba Sazonov Premier Liga · 2023 | 21 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kara Mbodj Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Lucas Fasson Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 19 Aug 2022 | Trabzonspor | Ajax | €9.5M | €2.8M |
| 11 Nov 2020 | Trabzonspor U19 | Trabzonspor | Unknown | €50k |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Trabzonspor U17 | Trabzonspor U19 | Unknown | €50k |
| 22 Jan 2019 | Trabzonspor U16 | Trabzonspor U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Trabzonspor Yth | Trabzonspor U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.