Lucas Fasson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Fasson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-4.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-7.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.6M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1878 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1418
- Opponent strength
- 1338
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €7.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; role change CB -> LB; relative output up 182% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -32% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | LB | 26 | 1878 | 70% | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1338 | 1418 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CB | 11 | 935 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1291 | 1413 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CB | 21 | 1748 | 65% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1342 | 1416 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CB | 3 | 143 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1260 | 1399 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 8 | 555 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitriy Skopintsev Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Rafa Soares Liga Portugal · 2019 | 24 | €3.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Amir Murillo Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Gerardo Arteaga Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Alexander Scholz Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €3.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Yordan Osorio Liga Portugal · 2019 | 25 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Bright Osayi-Samuel Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €8.0M | €8.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Athletico-PR | Loko Moscow | €3.0M | €1.5M |
| 17 Aug 2021 | La Serena | Athletico-PR | €1.5M | €650k |
| 11 Sept 2020 | São Paulo U20 | La Serena | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.