Zito Luvumbo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zito Luvumbo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-5.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (830 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 46.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 830 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1520
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; changed club; role change ST -> RW; relative output up 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -42% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 830 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RW | 10 | 509 | 15% | 0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 1520 | 1421 | 0.95 |
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | RW | 12 | 321 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1463 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | ST | 26 | 1613 | 47% | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.45 | 1490 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | ST | 30 | 1947 | 57% | 4 | 6 | 0.46 | 0.78 | 1510 | 1349 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Angola | 3 | 185 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 152 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann Karamoh Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Osman Bukari Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Daniel Ginczek Bundesliga · 2016 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Thievy Bifouma Ligue 1 · 2016 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Irvin Cardona Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Federico Bonazzoli Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Yoshinori Muto Bundesliga · 2017 | 25 | €4.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Isaac Cuenca Laliga · 2016 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | RCD Mallorca | Cagliari | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Cagliari | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Cagliari U19 | Cagliari | Unknown | €800k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Como | Cagliari U19 | Free / loan | €800k |
| 27 Jul 2021 | Cagliari U19 | Como | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 23 Sept 2020 | 1º de Agosto | Cagliari U19 | €880k | Data unavailable |
| 2 May 2018 | 1º Agosto U20 | 1º de Agosto | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | 1° Agosto U17 | 1º Agosto U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Guelson | 1° Agosto U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.