Samir Chergui
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samir Chergui's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-4.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1155 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1454
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €4.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -52% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1155 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | RB | 15 | 1155 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1475 | 1454 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Algeria | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Ligue 1 · 2013 | 26 | €3.5M | €7.5M | rose |
| Mehdi Zeffane Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Kirill Kombarov Premier Liga · 2013 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Baiano Liga Portugal · 2013 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.8M | rose |
| Marco Motta Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €1.7M | €750k | fell |
| Ronald Zubar Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Marko Simic Super Lig · 2013 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Sébastien Pocognoli Bundesliga · 2013 | 26 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2021 | Paris FC B | Paris FC | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Without Club | Paris FC B | Unknown | €150k |
| 2 Mar 2020 | AJ Auxerre | Without Club | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AJ Auxerre B | AJ Auxerre | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AJ Auxerre U19 | AJ Auxerre B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.