Hugo Félix
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hugo Félix's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (1335 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 78
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €670k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1335 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1300
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €510k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -12% to +219%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1335 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | AM | 26 | 1335 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 1300 | 1194 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Ilic Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €950k | €2.5M | rose |
| Mory Gbane Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €700k | €4.0M | rose |
| Georgiy Zhukov Eredivisie · 2016 | 22 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Sergiy Vakulenko Premier Liga · 2015 | 22 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Nikita Motpan Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Ramon Pascal Lundqvist Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €600k | €750k | rose |
| William Carvalho Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 21 | €800k | €26.0M | rose |
| Floriano Vanzo Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 22 | €650k | €650k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Benfica B | Tondela | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | CB Viseu | Benfica Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Porto Youth | CB Viseu | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.