Eric Kahl
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Eric Kahl's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.8M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1852 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1441
- Opponent strength
- 1249
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €5.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; team strength up (+112 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 75% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -48% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CB | 22 | 1852 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1249 | 1441 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CB | 20 | 1456 | 74% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 1305 | 1329 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | LM | 21 | 1193 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1287 | 1356 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | LM | 21 | 1277 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1304 | 1331 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | LB | 18 | 1425 | 72% | 2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 1251 | 1303 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 6 | 437 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 3 | 214 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 7 | 416 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 2 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 1494 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 3 | 219 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 2 | 145 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eren Elmalı Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Konstantinos Laifis Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 25 | €4.0M | €4.8M | rose |
| Alexander Scholz Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Joel Andersson Superliga · 2020 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Marlon Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €3.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Spyros Risvanis Super League 1 · 2018 | 24 | €1.5M | €725k | fell |
| Steve Colpaert Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 27 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Marcelo Eredivisie · 2013 | 26 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2021 | AIK | Aarhus GF | €1.5M | €1.0M |
| 17 Oct 2019 | AIK U19 | AIK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | AIK U17 | AIK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.