Denis Huseinbasic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denis Huseinbasic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (725 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 41.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 725 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €841k – €3.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -50% to +30%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 725 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CM | 15 | 725 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1469 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | DM | 26 | 1625 | 53% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 1506 | 1382 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 777 | 25% | 4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.40 | 1551 | 1476 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 78 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Sena Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Pablo Galdames Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Gastón Brugman Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €1.3M | €2.3M | rose |
| Bonke Innocent Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Stanislav Dragun Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Jordi Osei-Tutu Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Adrián Calello Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Jessy Deminguet Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 1.FC Köln | Braga | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | K. Offenbach | 1.FC Köln | €50k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Offenbach U19 | K. Offenbach | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Offenbach U17 | Offenbach U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Frankfurt U17 | Offenbach U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Frankfurt Yth. | Frankfurt U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Darmstadt Yth. | Frankfurt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.