
Casper Terho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Casper Terho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (780 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 19.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €841k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 780 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1295
- Opponent strength
- 1375
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €530k – €2.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -61% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 780 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 12 | 552 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1375 | 1329 | 0.65 |
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 9 | 228 | 7% | 1 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.55 | 1375 | 1213 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 9 | 432 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 1373 | 1545 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 20 | 982 | 36% | 3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.26 | 1324 | 1589 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 5 | 113 | 4% | 2 | 0 | 1.59 | 0.27 | 1205 | 1571 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1604 |
| 2024/25 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1557 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1356 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 5 | 142 | 0 | 0 | 1669 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | HJK Helsinki | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1502 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | HJK Helsinki | 3 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | HJK Helsinki | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1406 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramazan Gadzhimuradov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Roko Baturina Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Murilo Liga Portugal · 2020 | 24 | €650k | €225k | fell |
| Daylon Claasen Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 23 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Kubilay Kanatsızkuş Super Lig · 2019 | 22 | €650k | €1.0M | rose |
| Edgar Salli Liga Portugal · 2015 | 23 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Nemanja Mihajlovic Eredivisie · 2019 | 23 | €800k | €325k | fell |
| Antoine Colassin Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €650k | €750k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | OH Leuven | Sparta R. | €600k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Sparta R. | OH Leuven | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Feb 2026 | OH Leuven | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 3 Jul 2025 | Union SG | OH Leuven | €400k | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | SC Paderborn | Union SG | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Union SG | SC Paderborn | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | HJK Helsinki | Union SG | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | HJK Klubi 04 | HJK Helsinki | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | HJK U20 | HJK Klubi 04 | Unknown | €25k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.