Casper Terho

23 yrs · Right winger · Finland
Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 184 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€431k – €1.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€624k – €1.9M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€530k – €2.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€743k – €1.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€431k – €1.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€624k – €1.9M
Projected value (24 months)€530k – €2.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Casper Terho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (780 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average19.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €841k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-8% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
780 (26% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.23
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.32
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
19 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1295
Opponent strength
1375
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€530k – €2.2M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -61% to +4%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 780 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
78 (ATT)
Relative output kept
72%–126%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
60%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Oud-Heverlee LeuvenJupiler Pro LeagueRW1255220%000.000.32137513290.65
2025/26Sparta RotterdamEredivisieRW92287%110.790.55137512130.43
2024/25Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueRW943216%010.210.29137315450.63
2023/24Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueRW2098236%320.460.26132415890.63
2022/23Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueRW51134%201.590.27120515710.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingUnion Saint-Gilloise121001604
2024/25Volkswagen SupercupUnion Saint-Gilloise111001557
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingUnion Saint-Gilloise2180101356
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise5142001669
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueHJK Helsinki248001502
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise246101648
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingHJK Helsinki336001397
2022/23Uefa Europa League QualifyingHJK Helsinki17001406

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ramazan Gadzhimuradov
Premier Liga · 2021
23€700k€400kfell
Roko Baturina
Liga Portugal · 2024
24€700k€700kflat
Murilo
Liga Portugal · 2020
24€650k€225kfell
Daylon Claasen
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
23€800k€250kfell
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş
Super Lig · 2019
22€650k€1.0Mrose
Edgar Salli
Liga Portugal · 2015
23€750k€600kfell
Nemanja Mihajlovic
Eredivisie · 2019
23€800k€325kfell
Antoine Colassin
Eredivisie · 2023
22€650k€750kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026OH LeuvenSparta R.€600k€1.0M
30 Jun 2026Sparta R.OH LeuvenFree / loan€1.0M
2 Feb 2026OH LeuvenSparta R.Free / loan€1.5M
3 Jul 2025Union SGOH Leuven€400k€1.8M
30 Jun 2025SC PaderbornUnion SGFree / loan€1.8M
1 Jan 2025Union SGSC PaderbornFree / loan€1.8M
1 Jan 2023HJK HelsinkiUnion SGUnknown€400k
1 Jan 2021HJK Klubi 04HJK HelsinkiUnknown€25k
1 Jan 2020HJK U20HJK Klubi 04Unknown€25k

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Casper Terho · MoneyballAI