Cedric Hatenboer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cedric Hatenboer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-5.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.54x the positional average in the league (1146 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1146 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1216
- Opponent strength
- 1338
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €5.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -61% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1146 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Telstar | Eredivisie | DM | 15 | 1146 | 37% | 0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 1338 | 1215 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | SC Telstar | 2 | 163 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammed Gümüşkaya Super Lig · 2022 | 21 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Lamine Diack Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €1.7M | €900k | fell |
| Filip Krastev Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Farouk Miya Super Lig · 2020 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Max Johnston Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 20 | €700k | €3.5M | rose |
| Raphael Guzzo Liga Portugal · 2016 | 21 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Kristijan Bistrovic Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Abdisalam Ibrahim Super League 1 · 2014 | 23 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Telstar | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 5 Jan 2026 | RSC Anderlecht | Telstar | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Excelsior | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 29 Jan 2025 | RSC Anderlecht | Excelsior | Free / loan | €500k |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Excelsior | RSC Anderlecht | €2.1M | €500k |
| 8 Aug 2024 | Excelsior U21 | Excelsior | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Excelsior U18 | Excelsior U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Feyenoord U17 | Excelsior U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Alphense B. Jgd | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sparta Youth | Alphense B. Jgd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ajax Youth | Sparta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sparta Youth | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Dec 2013 | Excelsior Jeugd | Sparta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.