Kristijan Bistrovic

28 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Croatia
Akron Togliatti · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€472k – €1.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€640k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€507k – €1.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€680k – €792k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€472k – €1.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€640k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€507k – €1.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Kristijan Bistrovic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (727 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average32.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €822k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-40% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
727 (27% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.25
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.28
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
33 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1212
Opponent strength
1316
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€507k – €1.4M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-266 Elo); relative output up 132% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -37% to +19%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 727 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
18 (MID)
Relative output kept
54%–153%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
56%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Akron TogliattiPremier LigaCM1272727%110.250.28131612120.56
2024/25PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCM2096336%100.090.12128314780.55
2023/24FK BaltikaPremier LigaCM23193772%200.090.17135111870.49
2022/23Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieCM13115838%100.080.15133612190.58
2022/23US LecceSerie ACM1145913%000.000.20143313230.94
2021/22Fatih KaragümrükSuper LigCM18112233%110.160.21126512780.42
2021/22PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCM61767%100.510.21138413630.52
2020/21KasimpasaSuper LigCM20144640%050.310.30129012080.37
2020/21PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaDM142309%200.780.16135613830.55
2019/20PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaDM28143253%150.380.21139714470.63
2018/19PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaDM20113942%210.240.11137415470.69
2017/18PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaDM735613%000.000.05145015960.75

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupAkron Togliatti23900—
2024/25Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva1165910—
2023/24Russian CupFK Baltika852011—
2022/23Italy CupUS Lecce16700—
2021/22Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva218011—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeaguePFK CSKA Moskva6157101566
2019/20Uefa Europa LeaguePFK CSKA Moskva6420001470
2019/20Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva221000—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeaguePFK CSKA Moskva2180001651
2018/19Russian Super CupPFK CSKA Moskva1120001516
2017/18Uefa Europa LeaguePFK CSKA Moskva280001676

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Endri Cekici
Super Lig · 2024
28€1.3M€1.3Mflat
Roman Bezus
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
28€1.2M€2.4Mrose
Rai Vloet
Premier Liga · 2023
28€800k€350kfell
João Amaral
Liga Portugal · 2020
29€800k€3.0Mrose
Moritz Bauer
Premier Liga · 2021
29€1.2M€200kfell
Ramazan Civelek
Super Lig · 2023
27€850k€850kflat
Faris Haroun
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
30€700k€500kfell
Royston Drenthe
Super Lig · 2015
28€1.5M€1.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
6 Sept 2025CSKA MoscowAkron TolyattiFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2024BaltikaCSKA MoscowFree / loan€2.0M
14 Sept 2023CSKA MoscowBaltikaFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2023Fortuna SittardCSKA MoscowFree / loan€2.5M
19 Jan 2023CSKA MoscowFortuna SittardFree / loan€2.2M
17 Jan 2023LecceCSKA MoscowFree / loan€2.2M
24 Jul 2022CSKA MoscowLecceFree / loan€2.2M
30 Jun 2022KaragümrükCSKA MoscowFree / loan€2.2M
13 Jan 2022CSKA MoscowKaragümrükFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2021KasimpasaCSKA MoscowFree / loan€2.5M
22 Jan 2021CSKA MoscowKasimpasaFree / loan€2.5M
12 Jan 2018Slaven BelupoCSKA Moscow€500k€500k
1 Jul 2017Sl. Belupo U19Slaven BelupoUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Sl. Belupo U17Sl. Belupo U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Sl. Belupo JgdSl. Belupo U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Kristijan Bistrovic · MoneyballAI