Lucas Soares
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Soares's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.35x the positional average in the league (2080 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €551k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2080 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1276
- Opponent strength
- 1337
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €636k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 72% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -55% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | RM | 28 | 2080 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1337 | 1275 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | RM | 30 | 1658 | 54% | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 1375 | 1276 | 0.51 |
| 2022/23 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | RM | 27 | 2179 | 71% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 1388 | 1298 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CD Santa Clara | 3 | 194 | 0 | 0 | 1291 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1301 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abuda Super Lig · 2016 | 27 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Petrus Boumal Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €1.8M | €850k | fell |
| Timur Ayupov Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €725k | €800k | flat |
| Ederson Tormena Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 28 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Andrey Egorychev Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €725k | €900k | rose |
| Mamadou Maiga Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Felipe Abner Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 28 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Anton Shvets Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €2.2M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2023 | Alverca | Santa Clara | €200k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Casa Pia | Alverca | Free / loan | €600k |
| 14 Jul 2021 | Alverca | Casa Pia | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Guimarães B | Alverca | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Alverca | Guimarães B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Cruzeiro U20 | Alverca | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.