Kevin Rodríguez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kevin Rodríguez's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-9.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-6.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-8.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1164 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.8M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1164 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.70
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1362
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €8.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; relative output up 78% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -34% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1164 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 21 | 1164 | 43% | 8 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.45 | 1362 | 1570 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 20 | 617 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 1387 | 1545 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 14 | 435 | 16% | 3 | 2 | 1.03 | 0.47 | 1321 | 1589 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Union Saint-Gilloise | 10 | 662 | 2 | 1 | 1454 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | 378 | 0 | 1 | 1643 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ecuador | 3 | 84 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 1552 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 10 | 427 | 0 | 1 | 1530 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 133 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | 238 | 0 | 0 | 1543 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyriel Dessers Eredivisie · 2022 | 28 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Willian Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €4.5M | €4.5M | flat |
| Emre Çolak Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €5.5M | €7.5M | rose |
| Lorenzo Melgarejo Premier Liga · 2018 | 28 | €3.8M | €2.5M | fell |
| Percy Tau Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 26 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Chidera Ejuke Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 26 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Facundo Ferreyra Premier Liga · 2017 | 26 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Jürgen Locadia Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Independiente | Union SG | €4.5M | €500k |
| 3 Jan 2023 | Imbabura SC | Independiente | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Imbabura U20 | Imbabura SC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.