Nacho Miras
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nacho Miras's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-3.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.7M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2250 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1370
- Opponent strength
- 1368
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -78% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 25 | 2250 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1368 | 1370 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KV Mechelen | 8 | 675 | 0 | 0 | 1475 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbin Ruiter Eredivisie · 2016 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Bruno Varela Liga Portugal · 2023 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Rémy Riou Ligue 1 · 2016 | 29 | €4.0M | €600k | fell |
| Johannes Hopf Super Lig · 2017 | 30 | €2.2M | €500k | fell |
| Marafona Liga Portugal · 2017 | 30 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Geoffrey Jourdren Ligue 1 · 2014 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Ruud Boffin Super Lig · 2015 | 28 | €3.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nick Olij Eredivisie · 2023 | 28 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2025 | KMSK Deinze | KV Mechelen | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | R. B. Linense | KMSK Deinze | Free / loan | €300k |
| 10 Jul 2019 | Unknown | R. B. Linense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2017 | Crusaders | Unknown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jul 2017 | NCFC U23 | Crusaders | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2017 | Crusaders | NCFC U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2015 | Sanluqueño U19 | Crusaders | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.