Filip Bundgaard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Filip Bundgaard's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-4.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (1039 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.5M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 25% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1039 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1336
- Opponent strength
- 1254
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 25%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -34% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1039 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | ST | 17 | 1039 | 52% | 4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 1254 | 1336 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | ST | 18 | 588 | 30% | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.36 | 1244 | 1342 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Randers FC | Superliga | ST | 17 | 1173 | 59% | 4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 1302 | 1254 | 0.48 |
| 2023/24 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | ST | 5 | 93 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.97 | 0.44 | 1232 | 1417 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Randers FC | Superliga | LW | 21 | 938 | 47% | 4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 1289 | 1286 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Randers FC | Superliga | LW | 7 | 97 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1178 | 1290 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Randers FC | Superliga | LW | 4 | 19 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1319 | 1278 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 6 | 423 | 3 | 0 | 1369 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 4 | 206 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 3 | 181 | 2 | 1 | 1340 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 148 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 3 | 111 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Randers FC | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1395 |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 62 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olakunle Olusegun Premier Liga · 2023 | 21 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Richairo Zivkovic Eredivisie · 2017 | 21 | €2.5M | €1.7M | fell |
| Facundo Colidio Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 21 | €1.2M | €3.8M | rose |
| Vyacheslav Grulev Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Pontus Almqvist Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €2.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| Mads Hansen Superliga · 2023 | 21 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Brahim Darri Eredivisie · 2016 | 22 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Yann Karamoh Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2024 | Randers FC | Bröndby IF | €3.0M | €1.5M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Randers FC Yth. | Randers FC | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.