Clemens Riedel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Clemens Riedel's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-4.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-6.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-7.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.9M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1397 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1437
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €7.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +32% (IQR -21% to +111%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1397 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 20 | 1397 | 41% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1437 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | SV Darmstadt 98 | Bundesliga | CB | 14 | 753 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1522 | 1251 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SV Darmstadt 98 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SV Darmstadt 98 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gastón Álvarez Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €5.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| José Ángel Carmona Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €3.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Gino Peruzzi Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Ezequiel Muñoz Serie A · 2015 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Robert Gumny Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Ezequiel Schelotto Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Jackson Tchatchoua Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Alexander Hack Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2025 | Darmstadt 98 | Espanyol | €2.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Darmstadt U19 | Darmstadt 98 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Darmstadt U17 | Darmstadt U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | TSG Wieseck U17 | Darmstadt U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Wieseck Youth | TSG Wieseck U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Frankfurt Yth. | Wieseck Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.