José Ángel Carmona
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates José Ángel Carmona's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-11.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.0M-15.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.3M-17.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.7M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2564 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1397
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.3M – €17.8M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 317% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +23% (IQR -1% to +101%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | RB | 35 | 2564 | 75% | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1491 | 1397 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | RB | 35 | 2954 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1511 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Getafe CF | Laliga | RB | 30 | 1312 | 38% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 1487 | 1415 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Elche CF | Laliga | RM | 9 | 592 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.44 | 1549 | 1353 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | RB | 10 | 528 | 15% | 2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 1550 | 1583 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 3 | 155 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 2 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Sevilla FC | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1691 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Mavropanos Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €15.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Nicolò Casale Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €7.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Gian Marco Ferrari Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Hiroki Ito Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €10.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Marco Friedl Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €7.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €12.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Andrew Robertson Premier League · 2017 | 23 | €7.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Niklas Stark Bundesliga · 2018 | 23 | €15.0M | €16.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Getafe | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 20 Jul 2023 | Sevilla FC | Getafe | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Elche CF | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 11 Jan 2023 | Sevilla FC | Elche CF | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sevilla Atl. | Sevilla FC | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Sevilla FC U19 | Sevilla Atl. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sevilla FC U18 | Sevilla FC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sevilla FC U16 | Sevilla FC U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.