Chinonso Offor
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Chinonso Offor's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (706 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 15.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €708k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 706 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1326
- Opponent strength
- 1344
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €550k – €1.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -36% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 706 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | ST | 24 | 706 | 26% | 3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 1344 | 1326 | 0.56 |
| 2022/23 | Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 13 | 461 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 1278 | 1200 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 6 | 403 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rojas Eredivisie · 2018 | 27 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Gustav Engvall Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Marios Vrousai Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Tomas Chory Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €850k | €2.0M | rose |
| Alhassane Keita Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| David Texeira Liga Portugal · 2017 | 26 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Marvin Ogunjimi Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Ahmet Engin Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €800k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Arda Kardzhali | Baltika | €900k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Montréal | Arda Kardzhali | €225k | €650k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Arda Kardzhali | Montréal | Free / loan | €650k |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Montréal | Arda Kardzhali | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Zulte Waregem | Montréal | Free / loan | €600k |
| 6 Sept 2022 | Montréal | Zulte Waregem | Free / loan | €600k |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Chicago | Montréal | €295k | €600k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | RFS | Chicago | €760k | €300k |
| 21 Jul 2020 | Daugavpils | RFS | €90k | €50k |
| 18 Jul 2019 | Without Club | Daugavpils | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Nov 2018 | Binatli YSK | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 May 2018 | Cihangir GSK | Binatli YSK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Sept 2017 | Binatli YSK | Cihangir GSK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Jan 2017 | Real Sapphire | Binatli YSK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.