Marios Vrousai

28 yrs · Right-back (also LW, RM, RW) · Greece
Rio Ave FC · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€910k – €2.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€649k – €1.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.4M – €3.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.6M – €474k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€910k – €2.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€649k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€1.4M – €3.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Marios Vrousai's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.66x the positional average in the league (2532 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 86

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average29.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral28 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.2M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-26% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2532 (83% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.11
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
30 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1254
Opponent strength
1307
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.4M – €3.5M

Trajectory drivers: role change RB -> RM; relative output down 53% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -34% to -10%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (MID)
Relative output kept
72%–151%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalRM31253283%120.110.15130712540.58
2024/25Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalRB31254783%130.140.19135812700.51
2023/24Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalRW1466122%100.140.40143713170.58
2022/23Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RW1138016%000.000.25123414460.37
2021/22Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RW1330813%110.580.26119514990.39
2020/21Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RW1151322%200.350.31131215310.39
2019/20Willem II TilburgEredivisieRW2194540%230.480.42133813700.62
2018/19Willem II TilburgEredivisieLW16109636%450.740.60138512980.61
2018/19Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RW1141%000.000.30120615570.43
2017/18Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RW42218%100.410.27121914840.48

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios4196011333
2023/24Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios1500—
2022/23Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios635200—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios3213001534
2022/23Uefa Europa League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios110001411
2021/22Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios639202—
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios385001429
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios462011503
2021/22Uefa Europa League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios221001369
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios3187011603
2020/21Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios315511—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios110001581
2019/20Knvb BekerWillem II Tilburg210600—
2018/19Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios327010—
2018/19Knvb BekerWillem II Tilburg211802—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios118001533
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios112001318
2017/18Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios21701—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Artem Timofeev
Premier Liga · 2022
28€2.0M€2.5Mrose
Gaius Makouta
Liga Portugal · 2024
27€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Kamohelo Mokotjo
Eredivisie · 2017
26€4.0M€2.5Mfell
André Santos
Liga Portugal · 2017
28€1.0M€800kfell
David Pavelka
Super Lig · 2019
28€1.6M€1.0Mfell
Daniel Candeias
Super Lig · 2017
29€1.4M€1.0Mfell
Pol Llonch
Eredivisie · 2019
27€1.3M€1.4Mflat
Ismael Silva
Premier Liga · 2020
26€3.0M€2.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
6 Jul 2024OlympiacosRio Ave€500k€1.0M
30 Jun 2024Rio AveOlympiacosFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jan 2024OlympiacosRio AveFree / loan€800k
30 Jun 2020Willem IIOlympiacosFree / loan€900k
17 Jan 2019OlympiacosWillem IIFree / loan€200k
30 Sept 2016Olympiacos U20OlympiacosUnknownData unavailable
3 Aug 2015NafpaktiakosOlympiacos U20Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.