
Marios Vrousai
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marios Vrousai's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.66x the positional average in the league (2532 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2532 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: role change RB -> RM; relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -34% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RM | 31 | 2532 | 83% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 1307 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RB | 31 | 2547 | 83% | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1358 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RW | 14 | 661 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 1437 | 1317 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RW | 11 | 380 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1234 | 1446 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RW | 13 | 308 | 13% | 1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.26 | 1195 | 1499 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RW | 11 | 513 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 1312 | 1531 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | RW | 21 | 945 | 40% | 2 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.42 | 1338 | 1370 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | LW | 16 | 1096 | 36% | 4 | 5 | 0.74 | 0.60 | 1385 | 1298 | 0.61 |
| 2018/19 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RW | 1 | 14 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1206 | 1557 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RW | 4 | 221 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 1219 | 1484 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 196 | 0 | 1 | 1333 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 352 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 213 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1411 |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 392 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1429 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 62 | 0 | 1 | 1503 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1369 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 187 | 0 | 1 | 1603 |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 155 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1581 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 2 | 106 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 2 | 118 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1533 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1318 |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 17 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Timofeev Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Gaius Makouta Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kamohelo Mokotjo Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| André Santos Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| David Pavelka Super Lig · 2019 | 28 | €1.6M | €1.0M | fell |
| Daniel Candeias Super Lig · 2017 | 29 | €1.4M | €1.0M | fell |
| Pol Llonch Eredivisie · 2019 | 27 | €1.3M | €1.4M | flat |
| Ismael Silva Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2024 | Olympiacos | Rio Ave | €500k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Rio Ave | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Olympiacos | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Willem II | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €900k |
| 17 Jan 2019 | Olympiacos | Willem II | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Sept 2016 | Olympiacos U20 | Olympiacos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Aug 2015 | Nafpaktiakos | Olympiacos U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.