Moussa Diarra
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Moussa Diarra's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 48.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 647 (19% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1383
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €877k – €2.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; changed club; league level down (-73 Elo); relative output up 93% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -66% to -4%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 647 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 5 | 428 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1383 | 1393 | 0.65 |
| 2025/26 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LB | 3 | 219 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1545 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 26 | 1863 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1518 | 1418 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 22 | 1400 | 46% | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1508 | 1437 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1218 | 36% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1475 | 1347 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 90 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1466 | 1210 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | RSC Anderlecht | 7 | 543 | 0 | 0 | 1458 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Toulouse | 8 | 552 | 0 | 0 | 1678 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Toulouse | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ferrari Serie A · 2019 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Igor Silva Ligue 1 · 2023 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| John Boye Ligue 1 · 2014 | 27 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Théo Pellenard Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Léo Lacroix Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Molla Wagué Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ali Adnan Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.6M | flat |
| Souleyman Doumbia Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 28 | €2.0M | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | RSC Anderlecht | Alavés | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Alavés | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 18 Jul 2024 | Toulouse | Alavés | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Toulouse B | Toulouse | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Toulouse U19 | Toulouse B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.