Abraham Marcus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Abraham Marcus's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.29x the positional average in the league (2576 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €756k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2576 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1195
- Opponent strength
- 1330
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €676k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -16% to +81%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | RW | 31 | 2576 | 84% | 5 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.51 | 1330 | 1195 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RW | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1235 | 1744 | 0.68 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magaye Gueye Super Lig · 2017 | 27 | €1.4M | €400k | fell |
| Junior Kabananga Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Issa Kallon Eredivisie · 2022 | 26 | €800k | €750k | flat |
| Mohamed Rayhi Eredivisie · 2020 | 26 | €650k | €1.2M | rose |
| Amilton Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €500k | €900k | rose |
| Kiko Bondoso Liga Portugal · 2022 | 27 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Haris Vuckic Eredivisie · 2020 | 28 | €650k | €1.2M | rose |
| Christos Aravidis Super League 1 · 2014 | 27 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | FC Porto B | Estrela Amadora | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Remo Stars | FC Porto B | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Porto B | Remo Stars | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Remo Stars | FC Porto B | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Radomiak | Remo Stars | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 10 Feb 2022 | Remo Stars | Radomiak | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Portimonense | Remo Stars | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Remo Stars | Portimonense | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Feirense | Remo Stars | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Feirense Sub-23 | Feirense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2018 | Feirense U19 | Feirense Sub-23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Remo Stars Yth. | Feirense U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.