
Nor Maviram
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nor Maviram's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €251k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1458 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1386
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €275k – €730k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -12% to +147%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1458 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | LB | 20 | 1458 | 48% | 2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.37 | 1386 | 1194 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willyan Rocha Liga Portugal · 2020 | 25 | €325k | €1.5M | rose |
| Rodrigão Liga Portugal · 2020 | 25 | €400k | €3.5M | rose |
| João Silva Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €750k | €1.5M | rose |
| Mykyta Tatarkov Premier Liga · 2020 | 25 | €325k | €300k | flat |
| Marco Tol Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €450k | €500k | flat |
| Dico Koppers Eredivisie · 2017 | 25 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Lucas Áfrico Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Greg Leigh Eredivisie · 2019 | 25 | €400k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2024 | Vilaverdense | Tondela | Unknown | €225k |
| 26 Jul 2023 | Vizela U23 | Vilaverdense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Vilaverdense | Vizela U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Vizela U23 | Vilaverdense | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Vizela | Vizela U23 | Unknown | €50k |
| 25 Mar 2021 | Pedras Salgadas | Vizela | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Vizela | Pedras Salgadas | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Gee-Lec | Vizela | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2020 | FC Porto U19 | Gee-Lec | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 27 Aug 2019 | Gee-Lec | FC Porto U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.