Nor Maviram

25 yrs · Left-back · Nigeria
CD Tondela · Liga Portugal · Foot: left · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2026
Market value
€400k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€134k – €468k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€340k – €793k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€275k – €730k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€128k – €659k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€134k – €468k
Model value (performance-implied)€340k – €793k
Projected value (24 months)€275k – €730k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nor Maviram's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 96

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average11.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €251k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationHigh+18% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €500k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1458 (48% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.25
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.37
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
11 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1194
Opponent strength
1386
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€275k – €730k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -12% to +147%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1458 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26CD TondelaLiga PortugalLB20145848%220.250.37138611940.58

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Willyan Rocha
Liga Portugal · 2020
25€325k€1.5Mrose
Rodrigão
Liga Portugal · 2020
25€400k€3.5Mrose
João Silva
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
24€750k€1.5Mrose
Mykyta Tatarkov
Premier Liga · 2020
25€325k€300kflat
Marco Tol
Eredivisie · 2022
24€450k€500kflat
Dico Koppers
Eredivisie · 2017
25€500k€250kfell
Lucas Áfrico
Liga Portugal · 2021
26€400k€400kflat
Greg Leigh
Eredivisie · 2019
25€400k€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
9 Jul 2024VilaverdenseTondelaUnknown€225k
26 Jul 2023Vizela U23VilaverdenseFree / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2023VilaverdenseVizela U23Free / loanData unavailable
1 Sept 2022Vizela U23VilaverdenseFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2021VizelaVizela U23Unknown€50k
25 Mar 2021Pedras SalgadasVizelaFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2020VizelaPedras SalgadasFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2020Gee-LecVizelaUnknownData unavailable
30 Jun 2020FC Porto U19Gee-LecFree / loanData unavailable
27 Aug 2019Gee-LecFC Porto U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.