João Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates João Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €891k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 996 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1295
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €598k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 37 pts; changed club; relative output up 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -51% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 996 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CB | 12 | 996 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1295 | 1194 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 22 | 1877 | 70% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1375 | 1201 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 30 | 2562 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1396 | 1187 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 22 | 1569 | 51% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 1303 | 1209 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Correia Liga Portugal · 2018 | 28 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Joris Kramer Eredivisie · 2023 | 27 | €650k | €2.0M | rose |
| Bruno Wilson Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Igor Kalinin Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €750k | €700k | flat |
| Aleksey Gritsaenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Mamadou Bagayoko Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 27 | €750k | €500k | fell |
| Tiago Mesquita Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Nuno André Coelho Super Lig · 2015 | 29 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Tondela | Sport Recife | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Sport Recife | Tondela | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 13 Feb 2025 | KV Kortrijk | Sport Recife | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Alavés B | KV Kortrijk | Unknown | €150k |
| 31 May 2022 | NK Istra | Alavés B | Free / loan | €150k |
| 20 Jul 2021 | Alavés B | NK Istra | Free / loan | €300k |
| 5 Jul 2021 | NK Istra | Alavés B | Unknown | €300k |
| 2 Feb 2021 | Sporting B | NK Istra | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting U19 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Braga U17 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Palmeiras U17 | Braga U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2014 | Braga U17 | Palmeiras U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Braga U15 | Braga U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | SC Braga Youth | Braga U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.