Warmed Omari
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Warmed Omari's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-5.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-5.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.5M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1608 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1380
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €5.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -43% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1608 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | CB | 20 | 1608 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1490 | 1380 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1337 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2071 | 68% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1465 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 16 | 1363 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1450 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 34 | 2798 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1431 | 1581 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1482 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1549 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1566 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eray Cömert Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Andrea Carboni Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Lucas Olaza Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Rasmus Carstensen Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| João Ferreira Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Kevin Mbabu Bundesliga · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Grégory Sertic Ligue 1 · 2017 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Liberato Cacace Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Stade Rennais | Hamburg | €2.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Hamburg | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 7 Aug 2025 | Stade Rennais | Hamburg | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Lyon | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Stade Rennais | Lyon | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rennes U19 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Rennes U17 | Rennes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Rennes Jugend | Rennes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | TA Rennes Form. | Rennes Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.