Adedire Mebude
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adedire Mebude's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-3.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (1121 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1121 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.64
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.57
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 17 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1269
- Opponent strength
- 1251
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €740k – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level down (-68 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -21% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1121 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | RW | 13 | 742 | 24% | 2 | 4 | 0.73 | 0.57 | 1251 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 13 | 379 | 14% | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 1344 | 1348 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 17 | 676 | 25% | 2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 1397 | 1322 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 3 | 95 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1465 | 1293 | 0.63 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panagiotis Vlachodimos Super League 1 · 2014 | 23 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Patrik Wålemark Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Roman Tugarev Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Alex Fernandes Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €1.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Oussama Idrissi Eredivisie · 2017 | 21 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Tony Watt Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Pedro Marques Liga Portugal · 2021 | 23 | €900k | €650k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | KVC Westerlo | C. Rizespor | €1.0M | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Hamburg | KVC Westerlo | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 28 Jan 2025 | KVC Westerlo | Hamburg | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Bristol City | KVC Westerlo | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | KVC Westerlo | Bristol City | Free / loan | €500k |
| 26 Jul 2023 | Man City U21 | KVC Westerlo | €1.8M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Man City U18 | Man City U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 29 Sept 2020 | Rangers FC U17 | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.