Sydney van Hooijdonk

26 yrs · Striker · Netherlands
NAC Breda · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€374k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€399k – €1.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€520k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€687k – €778k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€374k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€399k – €1.2M
Projected value (24 months)€520k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Sydney van Hooijdonk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (1555 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 72

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average17.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €680k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationLow-16% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1555 (51% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.46
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.62
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
18 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1135
Opponent strength
1318
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€520k – €1.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output up 46% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -51% to +41%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1555 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (ATT)
Relative output kept
73%–122%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
61%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26NAC BredaEredivisieST18120039%510.450.62131811180.43
2025/26CF Estrela AmadoraLiga PortugalST1035512%110.510.62128211950.58
2024/25NAC BredaEredivisieST1799132%100.090.44131011250.50
2023/24Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AST92076%000.000.38138215790.98
2022/23SC HeerenveenEredivisieST33261585%1610.590.61134613060.58
2021/22SC HeerenveenEredivisieST13100633%610.630.70133712870.60
2021/22Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AST4351%000.000.84166313950.89
2018/19NAC BredaEredivisieST121395%000.000.54134311770.61

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerNAC Breda19000—
2024/25Italy CupCesena FC215600—
2023/24Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909217510—
2022/23Knvb BekerSC Heerenveen429730—
2021/22Italy CupBologna Football Club 19091500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Hadi Sacko
Super Lig · 2020
26€1.2M€350kfell
Renat Dadashov
Super Lig · 2024
25€1.8M€400kfell
Nikolaos Vergos
Super League 1 · 2022
26€600k€450kfell
Denzel Jubitana
Super League 1 · 2024
25€600k€600kflat
Mike van Duinen
Eredivisie · 2017
26€600k€1.0Mrose
Benhur Keser
Super Lig · 2024
28€1.2M€700kfell
Pål Alexander Kirkevold
Superliga · 2016
26€600k€800krose
João Pedro
Super League 1 · 2024
28€450k€800krose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
29 Jan 2026NAC BredaEstrela AmadoraFree / loan€1.3M
9 Jan 2025CesenaNAC BredaFree / loan€1.7M
9 Aug 2024BolognaCesenaFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2024NorwichBolognaFree / loan€4.0M
1 Feb 2024BolognaNorwichFree / loan€5.0M
30 Jun 2023HeerenveenBolognaFree / loan€6.0M
25 Jan 2022BolognaHeerenveenFree / loan€800k
3 Jul 2021NAC BredaBologna€735k€500k
1 Jul 2018NAC Breda U19NAC BredaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017NAC Breda U17NAC Breda U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Sydney van Hooijdonk · MoneyballAI