
Sydney van Hooijdonk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sydney van Hooijdonk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (1555 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €680k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1555 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.62
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1135
- Opponent strength
- 1318
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €520k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output up 46% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -51% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1555 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | ST | 18 | 1200 | 39% | 5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.62 | 1318 | 1118 | 0.43 |
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | ST | 10 | 355 | 12% | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.62 | 1282 | 1195 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | ST | 17 | 991 | 32% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.44 | 1310 | 1125 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | ST | 9 | 207 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1382 | 1579 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | ST | 33 | 2615 | 85% | 16 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.61 | 1346 | 1306 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | ST | 13 | 1006 | 33% | 6 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.70 | 1337 | 1287 | 0.60 |
| 2021/22 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | ST | 4 | 35 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.84 | 1663 | 1395 | 0.89 |
| 2018/19 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | ST | 12 | 139 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1343 | 1177 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cesena FC | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 175 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 4 | 297 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hadi Sacko Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €1.2M | €350k | fell |
| Renat Dadashov Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €1.8M | €400k | fell |
| Nikolaos Vergos Super League 1 · 2022 | 26 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Denzel Jubitana Super League 1 · 2024 | 25 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Mike van Duinen Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Benhur Keser Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Pål Alexander Kirkevold Superliga · 2016 | 26 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| João Pedro Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €450k | €800k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | NAC Breda | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 9 Jan 2025 | Cesena | NAC Breda | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 9 Aug 2024 | Bologna | Cesena | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Norwich | Bologna | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Bologna | Norwich | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Heerenveen | Bologna | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 25 Jan 2022 | Bologna | Heerenveen | Free / loan | €800k |
| 3 Jul 2021 | NAC Breda | Bologna | €735k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | NAC Breda U19 | NAC Breda | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | NAC Breda U17 | NAC Breda U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.