Andreas Ntoi

23 yrs · Centre-back (also DM) · Greece
Rio Ave FC · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.2M – €5.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€762k – €1.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.6M – €7.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.0M – -€408k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.2M – €5.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€762k – €1.8M
Projected value (24 months)€2.6M – €7.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Andreas Ntoi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-7.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (2347 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 58

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average29.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €4.4M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-4% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2347 (77% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.12
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
30 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1254
Opponent strength
1309
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.6M – €7.4M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-88 Elo); league level up (+53 Elo); role change CB -> DM; relative output up 208% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -1% (IQR -44% to +35%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (MID)
Relative output kept
72%–151%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalDM30234777%120.120.15130912540.58
2024/25Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalCB16136345%000.000.03133912700.51
2024/25Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1CB652723%000.000.02117815250.35
2023/24Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1CB17127354%100.070.04119714900.42
2022/23Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1CB16133157%010.070.05123914460.37

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios17000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios224001506
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios3251001366
2023/24Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios221000—
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios215001477
2022/23Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios435200—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios2180001567

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mike Tresor
Eredivisie · 2021
22€2.8M€15.0Mrose
Leonardo Lelo
Liga Portugal · 2023
23€3.5M€4.0Mflat
Paulinho
Liga Portugal · 2019
25€3.0M€1.2Mfell
André Poko
Super Lig · 2017
24€1.8M€1.1Mfell
Nicolas Madsen
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
24€2.5M€3.5Mrose
Mustafa Saymak
Eredivisie · 2018
25€2.5M€725kfell
Roman Emeljanov
Premier Liga · 2017
25€3.5M€3.0Mflat
Edo Kayembe
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
24€3.0M€4.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025OlympiacosRio AveFree / loan€4.5M
30 Jun 2025Rio AveOlympiacosFree / loan€4.5M
16 Jan 2025OlympiacosRio AveFree / loan€4.5M
1 Jul 2022Olympiacos BOlympiacosUnknown€150k
1 Jul 2021Olympiacos U19Olympiacos BUnknownData unavailable
1 Feb 2020Olympiacos U17Olympiacos U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Andreas Ntoi · MoneyballAI