
Andreas Ntoi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andreas Ntoi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-7.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (2347 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.4M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2347 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1309
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €7.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-88 Elo); league level up (+53 Elo); role change CB -> DM; relative output up 208% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -1% (IQR -44% to +35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | DM | 30 | 2347 | 77% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1309 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 16 | 1363 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1339 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 6 | 527 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1178 | 1525 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 17 | 1273 | 54% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1197 | 1490 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 16 | 1331 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1239 | 1446 | 0.37 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 251 | 0 | 0 | 1366 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1477 |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 352 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1567 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tresor Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €2.8M | €15.0M | rose |
| Leonardo Lelo Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Paulinho Liga Portugal · 2019 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| André Poko Super Lig · 2017 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.1M | fell |
| Nicolas Madsen Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 24 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Mustafa Saymak Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €2.5M | €725k | fell |
| Roman Emeljanov Premier Liga · 2017 | 25 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Edo Kayembe Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Olympiacos | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Rio Ave | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 16 Jan 2025 | Olympiacos | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Olympiacos B | Olympiacos | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Olympiacos U19 | Olympiacos B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2020 | Olympiacos U17 | Olympiacos U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.