Leonardo Lelo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leonardo Lelo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-6.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-6.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-7.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (1838 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.2M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1838 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1309
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €7.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; changed club; team strength up (+257 Elo); relative output down 34% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -42% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | LM | 29 | 1838 | 60% | 0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 1309 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | LM | 32 | 2851 | 93% | 1 | 6 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 1337 | 1276 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | LM | 33 | 2945 | 96% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 1385 | 1282 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | LM | 27 | 2288 | 75% | 1 | 6 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 1393 | 1298 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 9 | 580 | 0 | 1 | 1479 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 3 | 136 | 0 | 1 | 1306 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| André André Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €8.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Tonny Vilhena Premier Liga · 2020 | 25 | €11.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Guus Til Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €6.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Vítor Carvalho Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Pablo Rosario Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Loïc Lapoussin Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Bart Nieuwkoop Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Giuliano Premier Liga · 2014 | 24 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Casa Pia | Braga | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Olhanense | Casa Pia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Portimonense 23 | Olhanense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Sept 2020 | Olhanense | Portimonense 23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Olhanense U19 | Olhanense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Olhanense Y17 | Olhanense U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Setúbal FC U17 | Olhanense Y17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Olhanense Y17 | Setúbal FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Olhanense U15 | Olhanense Y17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Olhanense CJ | Olhanense U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.