Roni
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Roni's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.97x the positional average in the league (1317 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 73
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €650k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1317 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1349
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €518k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -43% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1317 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | DM | 16 | 1317 | 43% | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1349 | 1182 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maksim Kuzmin Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Aloísio Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Furkan Soyalp Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| José María Cases Super League 1 · 2014 | 28 | €750k | €500k | fell |
| Thom Haye Eredivisie · 2022 | 27 | €1.3M | €3.0M | rose |
| Rafael Crivellaro Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Zinédine Machach Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Peter van Ooijen Eredivisie · 2019 | 27 | €600k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | Mirassol-SP | Avs FS | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 10 Jan 2025 | Corinthians | Mirassol-SP | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Atlético-GO | Corinthians | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 23 Jan 2024 | Corinthians | Atlético-GO | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Corinthians B | Corinthians | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.