Denys Shostak
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denys Shostak's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.80x the positional average in the league (878 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 4.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €262k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 878 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1068
- Opponent strength
- 1175
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €214k – €615k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-240 Elo); relative output up 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -26% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 878 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | AM | 20 | 878 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 1175 | 1068 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | AM | 16 | 503 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1193 | 1309 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | AM | 17 | 838 | 31% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 1274 | 1218 | 0.34 |
| 2021/22 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | CM | 13 | 622 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1288 | 1139 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Oleksandriya | 2 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 1345 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 2 | 160 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 2 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gallacher Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Josh Mulligan Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €350k | €3.0M | rose |
| Scott Allardice Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Teddy Jenks Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €275k | €275k | flat |
| Josh Reid Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Oleksandr Chernov Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Yuriy Kozyrenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Vajebah Sakor Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €350k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2023 | Shakhtar U19 | FC Oleksandriya | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Estoril U23 | Shakhtar U19 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 21 Aug 2022 | Shakhtar U19 | Estoril U23 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Mariupol | Shakhtar U19 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 29 Jul 2021 | Shakhtar U19 | FC Mariupol | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Shakhtar II | Shakhtar U19 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Shakhtar U19 | Shakhtar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Shakhtar U17 | Shakhtar U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.