Vitaliy Roman
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vitaliy Roman's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €342k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1702 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1039
- Opponent strength
- 1161
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €246k – €806k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; team strength down (-160 Elo); role change LB -> RB; relative output up 576% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -2% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1702 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | RB | 20 | 1702 | 63% | 4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 1161 | 1039 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | LB | 27 | 2153 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1184 | 1199 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | LB | 27 | 2334 | 86% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1256 | 1265 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | RB | 23 | 1898 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1282 | 1218 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | RB | 6 | 477 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1357 | 1235 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triantafyllos Tsapras Super League 1 · 2023 | 22 | €450k | €500k | flat |
| Valeriy Dubko Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €350k | €500k | rose |
| Konstantinos Balogiannis Super League 1 · 2023 | 24 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Owen Beck Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Yuriy Romanyuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Anders Hagelskjaer Superliga · 2020 | 23 | €325k | €400k | rose |
| Christos Sielis Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Sean Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 22 | €275k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2021 | Rukh Lviv U19 | Rukh Lviv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Oct 2020 | Karpaty | Rukh Lviv U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Karpaty U19 | Karpaty | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Karpaty U17 | Karpaty U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.