Cristian Devenish
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cristian Devenish's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €571k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2165 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1363
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €524k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; relative output down 59% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -27% to +18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | CB | 26 | 2165 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1363 | 1182 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | CB | 32 | 2749 | 90% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1352 | 1154 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 1 | 74 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1231 | 1317 | 0.58 |
| 2020/21 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 27 | 2098 | 69% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1349 | 1308 | 0.61 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mica Pinto Eredivisie · 2019 | 26 | €650k | €600k | flat |
| Sergiy Lyulka Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €500k | €700k | rose |
| Gilles Dewaele Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €1.4M | €900k | fell |
| Moreno Rutten Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €650k | €325k | fell |
| Sergiy Siminin Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €900k | €1.0M | flat |
| George Cox Eredivisie · 2023 | 25 | €850k | €650k | fell |
| Artem Shabanov Premier Liga · 2017 | 25 | €500k | €1.5M | rose |
| Bruno Santos Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €600k | €525k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2024 | Atl. Nacional | Avs FS | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Rio Ave | Atl. Nacional | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Atl. Nacional | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Nacional U20 | Atl. Nacional | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Boavista | Nacional U20 | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 27 Aug 2020 | Nacional U20 | Boavista | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Vizela Y19 | Nacional U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Nacional U20 | Vizela Y19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.