Lucas Hey
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Hey's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.2M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2018 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1371
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €3.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+86 Elo); relative output down 77% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -33% to +35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 25 | 2018 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1371 | 1393 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 17 | 1438 | 73% | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 1319 | 1341 | 0.38 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 8 | 648 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1396 | 1476 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 15 | 732 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1261 | 1444 | 0.48 |
| 2023/24 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 3 | 270 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1392 | 1179 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 14 | 1010 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1296 | 1173 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | RSC Anderlecht | 7 | 496 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1396 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1293 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 4 | 206 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 196 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Lyngby Boldklub | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domingos Duarte Liga Portugal · 2018 | 23 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Murilo Premier Liga · 2020 | 23 | €2.4M | €2.0M | flat |
| Riccieli Liga Portugal · 2023 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Abdul Mumin Liga Portugal · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Hannes Delcroix Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 22 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Konstantinos Laifis Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 25 | €4.0M | €4.8M | rose |
| Matt Miazga Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Carlos Cuesta Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 21 | €3.6M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2025 | Nordsjaelland | RSC Anderlecht | €3.0M | €4.0M |
| 7 Aug 2023 | Lyngby BK | Nordsjaelland | €2.7M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Lyngby BK U19 | Lyngby BK | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Lyngby BK Youth | Lyngby BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | A27 | Lyngby BK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.