Maga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maga's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €737k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1576 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1299
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €716k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 59% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -33% to +49%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1576 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RB | 22 | 1576 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1299 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RB | 18 | 1393 | 46% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1338 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RM | 22 | 882 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1449 | 1397 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RM | 24 | 1959 | 64% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 1399 | 1387 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RB | 13 | 1077 | 35% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 1413 | 1399 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1377 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 2 | 196 | 0 | 0 | 1234 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 4 | 359 | 1 | 0 | 1339 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artur Jorge Liga Portugal · 2017 | 23 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Sam Vines Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Marcão Liga Portugal · 2018 | 22 | €900k | €3.2M | rose |
| Jordy de Wijs Eredivisie · 2018 | 23 | €1.3M | €1.6M | rose |
| André Pinto Super League 1 · 2013 | 24 | €1.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Stéphane Sparagna Liga Portugal · 2018 | 23 | €1.3M | €300k | fell |
| Sheldon Bateau Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Nélson Monte Liga Portugal · 2020 | 25 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2022 | Guimarães B | Vit. Guimarães | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Guimarães U23 | Guimarães B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Vitória SC U19 | Guimarães U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rio Ave U17 | Vitória SC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Padroense U17 | Rio Ave U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Rio Ave Sub-15 | Padroense U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Rio Ave Y | Rio Ave Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FC Porto Youth | Rio Ave Y | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.