Takahiro Akimoto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Takahiro Akimoto's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.40x the positional average in the league (2170 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €899k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2170 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1329
- Opponent strength
- 1387
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €499k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: role change LB -> LM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -55% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 25 | 2170 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1387 | 1329 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 25 | 2028 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1401 | 1323 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 5 | 260 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1435 | 1302 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1399 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuno Coelho Liga Portugal · 2014 | 27 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Washington Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Mehmet Güven Super Lig · 2016 | 29 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Abuda Super Lig · 2016 | 27 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Haris Belkebla Ligue 1 · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Filipe Augusto Liga Portugal · 2021 | 28 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Kyrylo Kovalchuk Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €900k | €1.5M | rose |
| Tom Pietermaat Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 29 | €700k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Urawa Reds | OH Leuven | €750k | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | OH Leuven | Urawa Reds | Free / loan | €900k |
| 20 Jan 2024 | Urawa Reds | OH Leuven | Free / loan | €900k |
| 9 Jan 2021 | Tochigi SC | Urawa Reds | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2020 | Kokushikan Univ | Tochigi SC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2016 | Tochigi U18 | Kokushikan Univ | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.