Lawrence Agyekum
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lawrence Agyekum's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (1806 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.3M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 16% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1806 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1325
- Opponent strength
- 1382
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 16%
- Resale range (24m)
- €633k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> RM; relative output up 155% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -38% to +48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 26 | 1806 | 67% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 1382 | 1325 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 27 | 1970 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1375 | 1361 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | Cercle Brugge | 3 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1230 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 4 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1366 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brecht Dejaegere Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 22 | €1.2M | €3.5M | rose |
| Olivier Thill Premier Liga · 2019 | 23 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Lincoln Liga Portugal · 2021 | 23 | €2.0M | €5.5M | rose |
| Sérgio Oliveira Liga Portugal · 2015 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Julien De Sart Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| David Targamadze Premier Liga · 2013 | 24 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Loret Sadiku Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Django Warmerdam Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Salzburg | Cercle Brugge | €800k | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Cercle Brugge | Salzburg | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 4 Jul 2024 | Salzburg | Cercle Brugge | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Liefering | Salzburg | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Salzburg | FC Liefering | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Dec 2022 | FC Liefering | Salzburg | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 8 Feb 2022 | Salzburg | FC Liefering | Free / loan | €125k |
| 7 Feb 2022 | WAFA SC | Salzburg | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Dec 2019 | WAFA U19 | WAFA SC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.