Ørjan Nyland

36 yrs · Goalkeeper · Norway
Sevilla FC · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 192 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€800k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€235k – €1.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€268k – €712k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€250k – €665k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€918k – €477k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€235k – €1.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€268k – €712k
Projected value (24 months)€250k – €665k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ørjan Nyland's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average55.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.8 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €557k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-40% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
450 (13% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.01
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
56 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1397
Opponent strength
1445
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€250k – €665k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 65 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -75% to -20%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 450 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Sevilla FCLaligaGK545013%000.000.01144513970.95
2024/25Sevilla FCLaligaGK30267478%000.000.00150614100.95
2023/24Sevilla FCLaligaGK24216063%000.000.00149714751.00
2022/23RB LeipzigBundesligaGK21806%010.500.05146116851.04
2019/20Aston VillaPremier LeagueGK753716%000.000.01166513671.14
2016/17FC Ingolstadt 04BundesligaGK12102233%000.000.00155814011.06
2015/16FC Ingolstadt 04BundesligaGK654018%000.000.00153114231.02

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReySevilla FC218000—
2025/26World CupNorway218000—
2024/25Copa Del ReySevilla FC19000—
2023/24Copa Del ReySevilla FC218000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSevilla FC2180001735
2022/23Dfb PokalRB Leipzig19000—
2019/20Fa CupAston Villa19000—
2016/17Dfb PokalFC Ingolstadt 04112000—
2015/16Dfb PokalFC Ingolstadt 0419000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rune Jarstein
Bundesliga · 2021
37€500k€300kfell
Jaroslav Drobny
Bundesliga · 2016
37€500k€100kfell
Andriy Dykan
Premier Liga · 2014
37€600k€150kfell
Brad Guzan
Premier League · 2017
33€1.0M€800kfell
Sergey Veremko
Premier Liga · 2015
33€850k€250kfell
Jessy Moulin
Ligue 1 · 2022
36€250k€200kfell
Diego López
Serie A · 2016
35€2.0M€500kfell
Christian Abbiati
Serie A · 2015
38€500k€500kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Sevilla FCWithout ClubUnknown€800k
20 Aug 2023LeipzigSevilla FCFree / loan€600k
9 Oct 2022Without ClubLeipzigUnknown€600k
1 Jul 2022ReadingWithout ClubUnknown€700k
10 Mar 2022Without ClubReadingUnknown€700k
31 Jan 2022BournemouthWithout ClubUnknown€700k
17 Aug 2021NorwichBournemouthFree / loan€1.0M
1 Feb 2021Without ClubNorwichUnknown€1.2M
5 Oct 2020Aston VillaWithout ClubUnknown€1.2M
7 Aug 2018FC IngolstadtAston Villa€3.0M€800k
1 Jul 2015Molde FKFC Ingolstadt€1.0M€1.8M
1 Jan 2013HøddMolde FKFree / loan€200k
1 Jan 2009IL Hødd Yth.HøddUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.