
Ørjan Nyland
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ørjan Nyland's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 55.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €557k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 450 (13% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1397
- Opponent strength
- 1445
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €250k – €665k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 65 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -75% to -20%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 450 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | GK | 5 | 450 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1445 | 1397 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | GK | 30 | 2674 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1506 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | GK | 24 | 2160 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1497 | 1475 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.05 | 1461 | 1685 | 1.04 |
| 2019/20 | Aston Villa | Premier League | GK | 7 | 537 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1665 | 1367 | 1.14 |
| 2016/17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | Bundesliga | GK | 12 | 1022 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1558 | 1401 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | Bundesliga | GK | 6 | 540 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1531 | 1423 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Sevilla FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1735 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rune Jarstein Bundesliga · 2021 | 37 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Jaroslav Drobny Bundesliga · 2016 | 37 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Andriy Dykan Premier Liga · 2014 | 37 | €600k | €150k | fell |
| Brad Guzan Premier League · 2017 | 33 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Sergey Veremko Premier Liga · 2015 | 33 | €850k | €250k | fell |
| Jessy Moulin Ligue 1 · 2022 | 36 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Diego López Serie A · 2016 | 35 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Christian Abbiati Serie A · 2015 | 38 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Sevilla FC | Without Club | Unknown | €800k |
| 20 Aug 2023 | Leipzig | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €600k |
| 9 Oct 2022 | Without Club | Leipzig | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Reading | Without Club | Unknown | €700k |
| 10 Mar 2022 | Without Club | Reading | Unknown | €700k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Bournemouth | Without Club | Unknown | €700k |
| 17 Aug 2021 | Norwich | Bournemouth | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Without Club | Norwich | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Aston Villa | Without Club | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 7 Aug 2018 | FC Ingolstadt | Aston Villa | €3.0M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Molde FK | FC Ingolstadt | €1.0M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Hødd | Molde FK | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2009 | IL Hødd Yth. | Hødd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.