Ilan Kebbal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilan Kebbal's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-8.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.0M-14.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.9M-14.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.23x the positional average in the league (2232 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.4M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2232 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.52
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1454
- Opponent strength
- 1441
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.9M – €14.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -44% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 29 | 2232 | 73% | 9 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 1441 | 1454 | 0.88 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | AM | 31 | 1781 | 52% | 1 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 1414 | 1417 | 0.86 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Simon Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €10.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Éder Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Franck Honorat Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Iago Falque Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €13.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| André-Pierre Gignac Ligue 1 · 2014 | 29 | €9.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Olcan Adin Super Lig · 2013 | 28 | €6.2M | €5.0M | flat |
| Fedor Smolov Premier Liga · 2018 | 28 | €16.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Leonardo Ulloa Premier League · 2015 | 29 | €8.5M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2023 | Stade Reims | Paris FC | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Paris FC | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Stade Reims | Paris FC | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | USL Dunkerque | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Jul 2020 | Stade Reims | USL Dunkerque | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Stade Reims B | Stade Reims | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2020 | AS Lyon-Duchère | Stade Reims B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Jan 2020 | Stade Reims B | AS Lyon-Duchère | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Côte Bleue | Stade Reims B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | G. Bordeaux B | Côte Bleue | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.