David Sousa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Sousa's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €821k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2265 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1336
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €663k – €2.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -26% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | CB | 26 | 2265 | 74% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1336 | 1225 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | RWD Molenbeek | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 9 | 676 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1416 | 1214 | 0.63 |
| 2021/22 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 17 | 816 | 27% | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 1391 | 1305 | 0.49 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Cox Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €900k | €650k | fell |
| Jannes Vansteenkiste Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Igor Plastun Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
| Mijusko Bojovic Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 25 | €650k | €400k | fell |
| Lucas Possignolo Liga Portugal · 2020 | 26 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Liam Smith Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 25 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Okan Erdoğan Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €800k | €650k | flat |
| Alex Bangura Eredivisie · 2022 | 23 | €900k | €900k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2025 | RWDM Brussels | Casa Pia | Free / loan | €700k |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Botafogo | RWDM | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Cercle Brugge | Botafogo | Free / loan | €400k |
| 4 Jul 2021 | Botafogo | Cercle Brugge | Free / loan | €250k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.