Alfonso Trezza
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alfonso Trezza's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.32x the positional average in the league (2329 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €743k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2329 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.52
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €780k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -42% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | RW | 32 | 2329 | 76% | 9 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 1319 | 1310 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | RW | 33 | 2434 | 80% | 5 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 1343 | 1285 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | RW | 24 | 833 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1393 | 1360 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Amaral Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Ömer Ali Şahiner Super Lig · 2019 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.7M | flat |
| Samuel Armenteros Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Peniel Mlapa Eredivisie · 2019 | 28 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Danijel Aleksic Super Lig · 2019 | 28 | €2.3M | €2.5M | flat |
| Welthon Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Barrie McKay Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 28 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Volodymyr Arzhanov Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €900k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2023 | Nacional | Arouca | €183k | €1.0M |
| 3 Jan 2020 | Nacional B | Nacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Nacional U19 | Nacional B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.