
Noah Mbamba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Mbamba's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-5.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (2432 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 78
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.8M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 34% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2432 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1387
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 34%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €5.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -55% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 30 | 2432 | 90% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 1387 | 1207 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 6 | 197 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1488 | 1267 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | DM | 3 | 14 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 6.43 | 0.11 | 1346 | 1787 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 2 | 73 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1284 | 1491 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | DM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1396 | 1601 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 14 | 445 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1317 | 1512 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | FCV Dender EH | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | 1293 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 1413 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1420 |
| 2021/22 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1414 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1790 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Crowley Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Amadou Ciss Eredivisie · 2020 | 21 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Alexis De Sart Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 22 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Pierre Dwomoh Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 20 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Rodney Kongolo Eredivisie · 2020 | 22 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Mauro Júnior Eredivisie · 2020 | 21 | €2.3M | €6.0M | rose |
| Ante Palaversa Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €1.5M | €350k | fell |
| François Marquet Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 21 | €750k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FCV Dender EH | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Leverkusen | FCV Dender EH | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 2 Feb 2025 | F. Düsseldorf | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Leverkusen | F. Düsseldorf | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 14 Jan 2023 | Club Brugge | Leverkusen | €100k | €3.0M |
| 5 Mar 2021 | Club NXT | Club Brugge | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Club Brugge U18 | Club NXT | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | KRC Genk Youth | Club Brugge U18 | €50k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.