Noah Mbamba

21 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Belgium
FCV Dender EH · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 196 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: HighContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€998k – €2.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €2.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.1M – €5.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.6M – €1.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€998k – €2.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €2.6M
Projected value (24 months)€1.1M – €5.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Noah Mbamba's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-5.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (2432 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 78

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average24.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable21.5 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €1.8M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationHigh+21% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentHighbreakout probability 34%
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2432 (90% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.11
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.20
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
25 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1207
Opponent strength
1387
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
High
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
34%
Resale range (24m)
€1.1M – €5.4M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -55% to +7%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
60 (MID)
Relative output kept
63%–142%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FCV Dender EHJupiler Pro LeagueCM30243290%120.110.20138712070.65
2024/25FCV Dender EHJupiler Pro LeagueCM61977%000.000.29148812670.63
2023/24Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaDM3140%016.430.11134617871.01
2022/23Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueDM2732%000.000.08128414910.58
2022/23Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaDM110%000.000.07139616011.04
2021/22Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueDM1444515%000.000.05131715120.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play OffsFCV Dender EH3270101293
2024/25Dfb PokalFortuna Düsseldorf11800—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen276011413
2023/24Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen11400—
2022/23Volkswagen SupercupClub Brugge KV166001420
2021/22Volkswagen SupercupClub Brugge KV177001414
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV355001790

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Dan Crowley
Eredivisie · 2019
22€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Amadou Ciss
Eredivisie · 2020
21€900k€700kfell
Alexis De Sart
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
22€1.5M€2.0Mrose
Pierre Dwomoh
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
20€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Rodney Kongolo
Eredivisie · 2020
22€900k€600kfell
Mauro Júnior
Eredivisie · 2020
21€2.3M€6.0Mrose
Ante Palaversa
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
22€1.5M€350kfell
François Marquet
Jupiler Pro League · 2016
21€750k€250kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026FCV Dender EHLeverkusenFree / loan€2.0M
3 Feb 2025LeverkusenFCV Dender EHFree / loan€2.0M
2 Feb 2025F. DüsseldorfLeverkusenFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jul 2024LeverkusenF. DüsseldorfFree / loan€2.5M
14 Jan 2023Club BruggeLeverkusen€100k€3.0M
5 Mar 2021Club NXTClub BruggeUnknown€500k
1 Jan 2021Club Brugge U18Club NXTUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2020KRC Genk YouthClub Brugge U18€50kData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.