Mauro Júnior
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mauro Júnior's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-10.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.6M-20.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.4M-18.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.5M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2086 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1606
- Opponent strength
- 1277
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.4M – €18.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -20% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 26 | 2086 | 68% | 1 | 9 | 0.43 | 0.13 | 1277 | 1606 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 25 | 2018 | 66% | 0 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.11 | 1305 | 1632 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CM | 16 | 873 | 29% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1350 | 1659 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 6 | 271 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1350 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 27 | 2118 | 69% | 2 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 1328 | 1641 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 19 | 1012 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 1332 | 1567 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | AM | 26 | 2160 | 92% | 6 | 6 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 1348 | 1330 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | AM | 4 | 42 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1269 | 1634 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | AM | 15 | 583 | 19% | 1 | 4 | 0.77 | 0.25 | 1246 | 1636 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 630 | 0 | 2 | 1679 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 168 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1297 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 829 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 134 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 53 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1408 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1410 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 163 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 3 | 256 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 188 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1433 |
| 2018/19 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 139 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mykola Matvienko Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €11.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Yaroslav Rakitskyi Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €10.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Domagoj Vida Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €7.5M | €7.0M | flat |
| Jordan Teze Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Josip Juranovic Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 27 | €7.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Abdülkerim Bardakcı Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €9.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Alexander Bah Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €13.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Carl Starfelt Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 28 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2020 | Heracles Almelo | PSV | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 7 Jul 2019 | PSV | Heracles Almelo | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | PSV U21 | PSV | Unknown | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Desportivo U20 | PSV U21 | Unknown | €100k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.