Mario Götze
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mario Götze's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.47x the positional average in the league (879 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 72.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -58% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 879 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €884k – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; team strength down (-128 Elo); relative output down 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -61% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 879 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | AM | 21 | 879 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1485 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | AM | 24 | 1549 | 51% | 3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 1510 | 1574 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | AM | 30 | 2079 | 68% | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 1529 | 1498 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 2750 | 90% | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1516 | 1541 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | AM | 29 | 2221 | 73% | 4 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 1352 | 1641 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 18 | 1411 | 46% | 5 | 6 | 0.70 | 0.35 | 1356 | 1567 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 15 | 515 | 17% | 3 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.34 | 1556 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 26 | 1675 | 55% | 7 | 7 | 0.75 | 0.40 | 1484 | 1683 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 23 | 1608 | 53% | 2 | 4 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 1508 | 1592 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 11 | 763 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 1529 | 1705 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | AM | 14 | 956 | 31% | 3 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.23 | 1512 | 1853 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 2248 | 73% | 9 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.21 | 1502 | 1793 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | AM | 27 | 1823 | 60% | 10 | 9 | 0.94 | 0.27 | 1519 | 1854 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 28 | 2026 | 66% | 10 | 12 | 0.98 | 0.52 | 1434 | 1746 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 419 | 0 | 1 | 1670 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 73 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 554 | 2 | 1 | 1560 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 221 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 167 | 0 | 2 | 1375 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 142 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 524 | 0 | 2 | 1683 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 517 | 0 | 5 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Super Cup | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1829 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 526 | 3 | 1 | 1509 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 421 | 1 | 3 | 1482 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 353 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 468 | 1 | 0 | 1529 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 73 | 0 | 1 | 1630 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 437 | 0 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 370 | 0 | 1 | 1639 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 225 | 0 | 2 | 1593 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 292 | 1 | 1 | 1627 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 150 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 4 | 108 | 2 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2015/16 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1666 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 11 | 747 | 4 | 3 | 1669 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 4 | 336 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1751 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 11 | 531 | 3 | 1 | 1663 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tolgay Arslan Serie A · 2023 | 33 | €1.4M | €750k | fell |
| Gelson Fernandes Bundesliga · 2018 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Angelo Palombo Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €2.7M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ljubomir Fejsa Laliga · 2020 | 32 | €2.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Leon Britton Premier League · 2017 | 35 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Nigel de Jong Bundesliga · 2018 | 34 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Simone Missiroli Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Vieirinha Bundesliga · 2017 | 31 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | PSV | Frankfurt | €3.0M | €10.0M |
| 6 Oct 2020 | Dortmund | PSV | Free / loan | €10.5M |
| 21 Jul 2016 | Bayern Munich | Dortmund | €22.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Dortmund | Bayern Munich | €37.0M | €45.0M |
| 1 Jul 2010 | B. Dortmund U19 | Dortmund | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2008 | B. Dortmund U17 | B. Dortmund U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Dortmund Yth. | B. Dortmund U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2001 | Hombr. SV Yth. | Dortmund Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 1998 | Ronsberg Yth. | Hombr. SV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.