Francis Coquelin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Francis Coquelin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.48x the positional average in the league (655 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 44.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €277k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 655 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1304
- Opponent strength
- 1439
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €248k – €688k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -64% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 655 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 16 | 655 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1439 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 6 | 224 | 7% | 1 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.25 | 1382 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 17 | 910 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1495 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | DM | 16 | 750 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1528 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | DM | 20 | 825 | 24% | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 1526 | 1661 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | DM | 22 | 728 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1544 | 1676 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Valencia CF | Laliga | DM | 26 | 1909 | 56% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1545 | 1548 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Valencia CF | Laliga | DM | 26 | 1766 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1538 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Valencia CF | Laliga | DM | 9 | 656 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1533 | 1607 | 1.11 |
| 2017/18 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | DM | 7 | 156 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1688 | 1665 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | DM | 29 | 1785 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1542 | 1681 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | DM | 26 | 1646 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1529 | 1678 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | DM | 22 | 1663 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1545 | 1729 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LM | 16 | 722 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1545 | 1454 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | DM | 11 | 226 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1517 | 1683 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 4 | 185 | 0 | 0 | 1560 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 51 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Villarreal CF | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1418 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 131 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 8 | 462 | 1 | 1 | 1778 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 7 | 438 | 0 | 0 | 1507 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 265 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 6 | 430 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 157 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 7 | 439 | 0 | 0 | 1577 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 328 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 4 | 278 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1427 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 145 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 426 | 0 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 38 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 393 | 0 | 0 | 1795 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1754 |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 5 | 381 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 2 | 131 | 0 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 5 | 311 | 1 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 278 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2012/13 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frédéric Sammaritano Ligue 1 · 2020 | 34 | €325k | €200k | fell |
| Mirko Valdifiori Serie A · 2019 | 33 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Emil Hallfredsson Serie A · 2019 | 35 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Emanuele Giaccherini Serie A · 2018 | 33 | €1.0M | €325k | fell |
| Gaby Mudingayi Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €300k | €50k | fell |
| Guy N'Gosso Ligue 1 · 2018 | 33 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Giuseppe Colucci Serie A · 2013 | 33 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Mato Jajalo Serie A · 2022 | 34 | €400k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | Without Club | FC Nantes | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Villarreal | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 12 Aug 2020 | Valencia | Villarreal | €7.1M | €14.0M |
| 11 Jan 2018 | Arsenal | Valencia | €14.0M | €12.0M |
| 12 Dec 2014 | Charlton | Arsenal | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 3 Nov 2014 | Arsenal | Charlton | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Freiburg | Arsenal | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 5 Jul 2013 | Arsenal | Freiburg | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Arsenal Res. | Arsenal | Unknown | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2011 | FC Lorient | Arsenal Res. | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 21 Jul 2010 | Arsenal Res. | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal Res. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Stade Laval U17 | Arsenal U18 | €1.0M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | St. Laval Yth. | Stade Laval U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | AS Bourny Yth. | St. Laval Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.