Oleksiy Sych

25 yrs · Right-back (also DM) · Ukraine
Karpaty Lviv · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€700k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€196k – €676k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€409k – €913k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€336k – €1.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€267k – €717k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€196k – €676k
Model value (performance-implied)€409k – €913k
Projected value (24 months)€336k – €1.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Oleksiy Sych's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 87

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average18.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €380k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationLow-17% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1193 (44% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
18 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1213
Opponent strength
1188
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€336k – €1.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; changed club; relative output down 69% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -8% (IQR -59% to +36%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1193 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Karpaty LvivPremier LigaRB18119344%000.000.06118812130.25
2024/25Rukh LvivPremier LigaRB16136851%040.260.21119711990.28
2024/25Karpaty LvivPremier LigaRB436013%000.000.14127811850.28
2023/24Rukh LvivPremier LigaRB302687100%120.100.11126512650.34
2022/23KV KortrijkJupiler Pro LeagueRB14120639%110.150.15135612090.58
2022/23Rukh LvivPremier LigaRB327010%000.000.14134012180.38
2021/22Rukh LvivPremier LigaRB1277551%000.000.06127812350.45
2020/21Rukh LvivPremier LigaDM2673%000.000.20142712310.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Ukrainian CupRukh Lviv19000—
2021/22Ukrainian CupRukh Lviv14200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mykyta Kravchenko
Premier Liga · 2023
26€600k€1.2Mrose
Toby Sibbick
Scottish Premiership · 2024
25€650k€550kflat
Oleksandr Martynyuk
Premier Liga · 2024
23€500k€1.5Mrose
Danylo Beskorovaynyi
Premier Liga · 2023
24€500k€600krose
Oleksandr Kapliyenko
Premier Liga · 2024
28€500k€200kfell
Stefanos Stroungis
Super League 1 · 2023
26€400k€400kflat
Marijan Cabraja
Scottish Premiership · 2023
26€600k€250kfell
Vasyl Kravets
Premier Liga · 2024
27€1.0M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
20 Jan 2025Rukh LvivKarpaty Lviv€1.0M€1.0M
30 Jun 2023KV KortrijkRukh LvivFree / loan€600k
6 Sept 2022Rukh LvivKV KortrijkFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2021Rukh Lviv IIRukh LvivUnknown€100k
31 Dec 2020Karpaty GalychRukh Lviv IIFree / loanData unavailable
6 Oct 2020Rukh Lviv IIKarpaty GalychFree / loanData unavailable
5 Oct 2020KarpatyRukh Lviv IIFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2020Karpaty IIKarpatyUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2020Karpaty U19Karpaty IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Aug 2019UFK LvivKarpaty U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.