Niclas Füllkrug
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Niclas Füllkrug's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-4.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-5.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (1056 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 85.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.9M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1056 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €913k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level down (-57 Elo); relative output down 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -70% to -60%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1056 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | ST | 20 | 647 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 1494 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | ST | 8 | 409 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1585 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | West Ham United | Premier League | ST | 18 | 788 | 23% | 3 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 1533 | 1520 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 2227 | 73% | 12 | 8 | 0.81 | 0.47 | 1528 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2023/24 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 1677 | 1459 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 28 | 2479 | 81% | 16 | 5 | 0.76 | 0.84 | 1519 | 1393 | 1.04 |
| 2020/21 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 19 | 878 | 29% | 6 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 1486 | 1384 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 8 | 401 | 13% | 4 | 1 | 1.12 | 0.58 | 1467 | 1428 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Hannover 96 | Bundesliga | ST | 14 | 1112 | 36% | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.44 | 1527 | 1326 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Hannover 96 | Bundesliga | ST | 34 | 2388 | 78% | 14 | 3 | 0.64 | 0.77 | 1521 | 1397 | 1.04 |
| 2012/13 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 12 | 258 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.56 | 1469 | 1446 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 13 | 1042 | 3 | 2 | 1724 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 29 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Hannover 96 | 1 | 82 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Hannover 96 | 2 | 102 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 55 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Johnson Bundesliga · 2019 | 32 | €3.0M | €600k | fell |
| Salomón Rondón Premier League · 2022 | 33 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Shola Ameobi Premier League · 2014 | 33 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Thiago Galhardo Laliga · 2022 | 33 | €2.0M | €1.1M | fell |
| Augusto Solari Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Jóhann Berg Gudmundsson Premier League · 2021 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Edinson Cavani Premier League · 2022 | 35 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jorge Molina Laliga · 2016 | 34 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | AC Milan | West Ham | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 2 Jan 2026 | West Ham | AC Milan | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 5 Aug 2024 | Dortmund | West Ham | €27.0M | €15.0M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Werder Bremen | Dortmund | €17.3M | €13.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hannover 96 | Werder Bremen | €6.5M | €8.0M |
| 18 Jul 2016 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Hannover 96 | €2.2M | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Werder Bremen | 1.FC Nuremberg | €300k | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Greuther Fürth | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €700k |
| 24 Aug 2013 | Werder Bremen | Greuther Fürth | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 9 Feb 2012 | W. Bremen II | Werder Bremen | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | W. Bremen U19 | W. Bremen II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | W. Bremen U17 | W. Bremen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | W. Bremen Yth. | W. Bremen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Ricklingen Yth. | W. Bremen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | TuS Rickl. Yth. | Ricklingen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.