Adam Montgomery
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adam Montgomery's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 0.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €164k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 651 (22% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 981
- Opponent strength
- 1216
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €259k – €584k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -15% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 651 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 8 | 651 | 22% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1216 | 981 | 0.31 |
| 2022/23 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 23 | 1856 | 62% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 1297 | 1138 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 8 | 340 | 11% | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 1255 | 1575 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 4 | 283 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 1261 | 1265 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Queen's Park FC | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 1 | 88 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Fleetwood Town | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 4 | 321 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 3 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 1 | 52 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1444 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borys Krushynskyi Premier Liga · 2023 | 21 | €300k | €1.2M | rose |
| Sam McClelland Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €175k | €150k | flat |
| Adam Tzanetopoulos Super League 1 · 2019 | 24 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Yegor Klymenchuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Paolo Medina Super League 1 · 2021 | 22 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Georgios Machlelis Super League 1 · 2015 | 24 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Özer Özdemir Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €700k | €175k | fell |
| Mateo Muzek Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €350k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | Livingston FC | Celtic | Free / loan | €400k |
| 25 Jul 2025 | Celtic | Livingston FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 May 2025 | Queen's Park | Celtic | Free / loan | €500k |
| 5 Feb 2025 | Celtic | Queen's Park | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Motherwell FC | Celtic | Free / loan | €500k |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Celtic | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Fleetwood | Celtic | Free / loan | €500k |
| 3 Jul 2023 | Celtic | Fleetwood | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 May 2023 | St. Johnstone | Celtic | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Celtic | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €450k |
| 17 May 2022 | Aberdeen FC | Celtic | Free / loan | €450k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Celtic | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Celtic B | Celtic | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Celtic U18 | Celtic B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Celtic Youth | Celtic U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.