Joel Ideho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joel Ideho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (1132 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 90
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €204k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1132 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1101
- Opponent strength
- 1328
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €231k – €422k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -37% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1132 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | LW | 25 | 1132 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.46 | 1328 | 1101 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 4 | 167 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1260 | 1300 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Volendam | 3 | 267 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Johnson Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €275k | €175k | fell |
| Rasmus Thellufsen Superliga · 2021 | 24 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Steven Boyd Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 22 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Connor McLennan Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 24 | €375k | €200k | fell |
| Vasil Shkurtaj Super League 1 · 2015 | 23 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Vladyslav Veleten Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €400k | €1.0M | rose |
| Emil Frederiksen Superliga · 2022 | 22 | €350k | €800k | rose |
| Alex Schalk Eredivisie · 2015 | 23 | €450k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FC Volendam | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €300k |
| 15 Aug 2025 | Sparta R. | FC Volendam | Free / loan | €500k |
| 4 Feb 2025 | ADO Den Haag | Sparta R. | Unknown | €400k |
| 9 Aug 2023 | Arsenal U21 | ADO Den Haag | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Ajax U18 | Arsenal U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Willem II U17 | Ajax U18 | €56k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Willem II Youth | Willem II U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | 't Zand Youth | Willem II Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.