Rafiki Saïd
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rafiki Saïd's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-3.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-6.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (2000 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.0M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2000 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1341
- Opponent strength
- 1388
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €6.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -65% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 27 | 2000 | 74% | 5 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 1388 | 1341 | 0.65 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | LW | 14 | 109 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1414 | 1369 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Standard Liège | 10 | 759 | 3 | 2 | 1373 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Rosa Liga Portugal · 2015 | 26 | €3.5M | €1.3M | fell |
| Steve Mounié Ligue 1 · 2021 | 27 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ishak Belfodil Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €6.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Mimoun Mahi Eredivisie · 2019 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.3M | fell |
| Abdou Traoré Super Lig · 2015 | 27 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Tunay Torun Super Lig · 2016 | 26 | €4.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 26 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Denis Bouanga Ligue 1 · 2021 | 27 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2025 | Troyes | Standard Liège | €2.5M | €2.0M |
| 22 Jul 2023 | Nîmes Olympique | Troyes | €800k | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Stade Brestois | Nîmes Olympique | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Stade Briochin | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Stade Brestois | Stade Briochin | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Brest B | Stade Brestois | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Stade Brest U19 | Brest B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Brest 29 U17 | Stade Brest U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.