Ivan Komarov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivan Komarov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (1101 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1101 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1301
- Opponent strength
- 1380
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €651k – €2.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +44% (IQR -27% to +204%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1101 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | AM | 24 | 1101 | 41% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.30 | 1380 | 1301 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | AM | 19 | 1181 | 44% | 3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 1278 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | LW | 16 | 391 | 14% | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 1368 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | RM | 11 | 315 | 12% | 0 | 3 | 0.86 | 0.49 | 1364 | 1343 | 0.53 |
| 2019/20 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CM | 1 | 30 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1344 | 1374 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 6 | 392 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 9 | 371 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 10 | 577 | 2 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahima Conté Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 22 | €1.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Artem Golubev Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Wagner Pina Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €2.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Zanocelo Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Stephen Eustaquio Liga Portugal · 2020 | 24 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Olivier Thill Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Ibrahima Cissé Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Renato Tapia Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €3.0M | €20.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2023 | Rostov II | Rostov | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Akademia Rostov | Rostov II | Unknown | €25k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Rostov II | Akademia Rostov | Unknown | €25k |
| 19 Jun 2020 | Akademia Rostov | Rostov II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Ak.Loko U16 | Akademia Rostov | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.