Wagner Pina
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Wagner Pina's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.3M-14.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.3M-17.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.5M vs market €11.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2444 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1368
- Opponent strength
- 1264
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.3M – €17.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+67 Elo); league level down (-54 Elo); role change RM -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -39% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | RB | 31 | 2444 | 80% | 0 | 7 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 1264 | 1368 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | RM | 30 | 2377 | 78% | 2 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 1349 | 1302 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | RM | 22 | 1094 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 1425 | 1279 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Cape Verde | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yukinari Sugawara Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Igor Diveev Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Bünyamin Balcı Super Lig · 2022 | 22 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Valentin Rosier Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Daniil Khlusevich Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Adamo Nagalo Superliga · 2023 | 21 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Devyne Rensch Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €10.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Kalidou Koulibaly Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €6.5M | €20.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Estoril | Trabzonspor | €3.0M | €5.0M |
| 20 Oct 2023 | Estoril U23 | Estoril | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Belenenses | Estoril U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Gouveia | Belenenses | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Tondela U19 | Gouveia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sacavenense U19 | Tondela U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sacavenense S17 | Sacavenense U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sacavenense S15 | Sacavenense S17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sacavenense F. | Sacavenense S15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.